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Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season/June
June 93E.INVEST AOI:SSW of Manzillo A large disturbed area of weather that has been targeted by models the past few days is now garnering organization and has a 10% chance of formation by the NHC. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 13:17, June 9, 2012 (UTC) 93E.INVEST Invested. Yqt1001 14:35, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :I've been looking at this for about a day now. Seems like GFS quite likes this system, but it's the only one that really really does. SSTs are still really favorable for development. Honestly, I don't expect that much... at most I see a depression or a weak TS. I expect much much more from the next one behind it. Darren23[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:Darren23/Cyclone_Warning_Center CWC] 14:50, June 9, 2012 (UTC) ::You know what, I'm mistaken. I think this has a decent shot at becoming a decent tropical system. I just don't feel confident about it since ECMWF is not really catching on with developing this system. Darren23[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:Darren23/Cyclone_Warning_Center CWC] 15:23, June 9, 2012 (UTC) ::ECMWF is not th best model of all I think that with the upgrades the GFS is the best model for now.Allanjeffs 16:08, June 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::Here comes Carlotta...I think we'll see a hurricane (potentially a MH) from this system, but on the bright side, it's well out to sea. It won't be heading toward any land anytime. And future Daniel (behind this system) will probrably parallel/stall off of Mexico if it forms, but that's a long ways out in the future. Ryan1000 17:05, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :::::This is the storm that a bunch of models have been targeting a lot lately... it looks really good now. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 17:11, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :::::I think both Carlotta and Daniel would become major hurricanes remember how does this names have been good in intensifying in the past when they were used.Allanjeffs 17:59, June 9, 2012 (UTC) 30% :D Cyclone10E-Mail 18:00, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :It's winding up really well. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 18:05, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :::I'm thinking a peak of anywhere from 105 to 125 mph from this storm (Carlotta). Daniel might be the same or stronger. There were only two incarnations of Daniel since 1978-the 1988 and 1994 Daniels, that did not become major hurricanes. Ryan1000 20:32, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :::Could definitely see this reaching major hurricane status its in a favorable enviroment maybe Daniel too but I think it will be trouble for Mexico if it realize.Allanjeffs 20:46, June 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::The environment it is in is becoming conclusive for strengthening. I think it will head west and the curve back into the Baja California. While it will be moving into 30-40 kt wind shear in about 2-3 days, the shear dropped 10 kts in the past 24 hours, and if it continues to do so, it should be around 15-25 kt wind shear when future Carlotta kicks in. Divergence and convergence is stacking up and it has developed a nice 850mb vorticy. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 21:05, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :::::Doubt it will re-curve back, it is June, not October. I'm thinking storng TS. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 21:10, June 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Still at '''30%. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 00:05, June 10, 2012 (UTC) ASCAT reveals that the disturbance is starting to get something resembling a circulation together. Yqt1001 03:06, June 10, 2012 (UTC) The intensity of future Carlotta can be from cat 1 all the way to cat 4.Allanjeffs 04:11, June 10, 2012 (UTC) 50% now we may have a TD as early tomorrow. Allanjeffs 05:49, June 10, 2012 (UTC) :Bumped up to 60% this morning... steadily becoming better organized and will likely become Carlotta. In addition, the floaters are finally up for 93E, if you want to use them. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:20, June 10, 2012 (UTC) ::Remains at 60% as the organization does not change much. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 18:00, June 10, 2012 (UTC) ::::JTWC has issued an TCFA.Cyclone10E-Mail 18:38, June 10, 2012 (UTC) 93E is a very reluctant storm, and thus remains at 60%, but it is in a pretty good environment. Its postioned under an anticyclone and is currently in low shear, but convergence and divergence have stepped down a bit. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 00:42, June 11, 2012 (UTC) Down to 50%Allanjeffs 05:47, June 11, 2012 (UTC) :Its even further down to 30%. The time frame on 93E is running out - it should enter an area of shear very soon. The anticyclone that favored development is now off of the invest. It it forms, it had to be either yesterday or this morning. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 13:10, June 11, 2012 (UTC) :I doubt this invest will become Three-E. It's losing it's chance very fast. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 14:39, June 11, 2012 (UTC) ::Andrew! Where have you been? Anyways the timeframe for 3E is going down. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 15:36, June 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::I guess I spoke to soon...It's not looking very likely at all now that we will see even a depression from this system. First time I've seen a 60% invest bust in a while. Ryan1000 16:16, June 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Some models are developing this system later on so it might be dead right now but we need to watch it for the next three days.Allanjeffs 16:32, June 11, 2012 (UTC) :::::::down to 10%Allanjeffs 17:48, June 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::Whoa there... it literally hit a brick wall. Right when it reached 20 kt wind shear it just poofed. Supposed to return back to Baja. The pressure gradient has gone down the chute and convergence is off.--'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 18:43, June 11, 2012 (UTC) :::::::::Whammy kablammy! Now at near 0%. Likely not to regenerate. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 23:49, June 11, 2012 (UTC) Completely off NHC now. I really expected more from this. Ryan1000 05:36, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :Great victory for the ECMWF and other models who really expected nearly nothing from this. Puts into question GFS which seems to have been overestimating many storms lately and jumping the gun. Darren23[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:Darren23/Cyclone_Warning_Center CWC] 16:34, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::Big fail by TA. Biggest invest bust since 2010 when there was a 60% that did not develop in October and an 80% that did not develop due to land. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 17:34, June 12, 2012 (UTC) 03E.CARLOTTA See the archive on Carlotta. 95E.INVEST 95E.INVEST (first time) As a reaction to the MJO ready to surge into the EPAC... say hello to 95E.INVEST, currently west of 94E. If you saw two splotches on the models... this is the other one.CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 16:55, June 12, 2012 (UTC) Maybe this will become Daniel in the near future.Allanjeffs 16:58, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :Too close to 94E IMO. Looks like a mess right now. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season '''T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE C'''yclone] 17:32, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :20% at first I thought the same as you YE but I think now that both cna develop as the enviroment is favorable for strengthening .Allanjeffs 17:58, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::It's expected to become a pretty sizeable storm, but unlike 94E, this storm likely won't affect land. All of the storms named Daniel (except the 1988 and 1978 Daniels) have tried to hit Hawaii, but only the 1982 and 2000 Daniels actually did so. Maybe this future-Daniel could threaten them as well. ''Ryan1000'' 18:18, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::::I think i read somewhere that Hawaii ask the retirement of the name Daniel but It was denied.Daniel of 2006 was a threat to hawaii I think so.Allanjeffs 18:23, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::@Allan: The 2006 Daniel was claimed to be one of Hawaii's more memorable storms, but the WMO did not accept the request. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 18:40, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::Yes, the remnants of Daniel caused floods on Hawaii, and yes WMO did not accept the request of retirement from I think some Hawaii Civil Defense organization. --'''CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:16, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::::A country would have to request a name to be retired for the WMO to have to approve it. Not to say groups of people, like the organizations in Hawaii, can't request retirement either, but they aren't always approved, per Daniel '06. Iwa, Iniki, Paka, and Ioke were requested to be retired from the CPac lists due to their damage, but Ioke would have been removed anyways because it was an incorrect name on the lists, even though the damage on Wake Island would have gotten him removed anyways. Although many storms (particularly the "Daniels") have threatened Hawaii in the past, it's very hard for any hurricane to hit them from the east due to wind shear and the high pressure ridge usually protecting them. Furthermore, Hawaii is small enough to avoid most landfalls from hurricanes. If anything Hawaii is most vulnerable to tsunamis generated by massive earthquakes off Alaska (1946, 1964 to name a few), or even by the Cascaddia Subduction Zone off Oregon and Washington. Ryan1000 21:34, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::::Now at 10%. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 17:46, June 13, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::Falling apart --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 22:49, June 13, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::0% looks like Daniel will need to wait.Allanjeffs 06:12, June 14, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::I think it'll come on Saturday, at the end of the week. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 13:15, June 14, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::doubt it too much windshear.Allanjeffs 01:28, June 15, 2012 (UTC) :::::::::::I meant that the next invest should come on Saturday, but anyways, 95E is back up with 10%. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 18:04, June 15, 2012 (UTC) :::::::::::up to 20%Allanjeffs 23:44, June 16, 2012 (UTC) 95E.INVEST (2nd time) Re-invested.Cyclone10E-Mail 00:58, June 17, 2012 (UTC) :95E is absorbing what's left of Carlotta.Cyclone10E-Mail 18:32, June 17, 2012 (UTC) ::It went way up to 40%. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 15:13, June 18, 2012 (UTC) ::Anybody have any intensity predictions if this low becomes Daniel? 70.126.74.7 16:12, June 18, 2012 (UTC) :::I'm creating one to be posted on the Forum:Prediction Intercomparison. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 17:08, June 18, 2012 (UTC) :::Up to 60%Allanjeffs 17:46, June 18, 2012 (UTC) ::::You mean 50, but yeah, its organizing. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 17:47, June 18, 2012 (UTC) ::::I mean 60% cobrastrike 95L was up to 50% 95E is up to 60%Allanjeffs 17:54, June 18, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Maybe this storm (Daniel) won't be a Hawaii threat after all. Ryan1000 19:28, June 18, 2012 (UTC) ::::::If this form into Daniel which I don`t think so it will probably be the weakest Daniel we ever had until know.Allanjeffs 19:43, June 18, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Up to 70%Allanjeffs 23:42, June 18, 2012 (UTC) :::::::I knew it was going to regen after eating Carlotta. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 23:43, June 18, 2012 (UTC) ::::::I'd say future Daniel will reach a maximum of 35 knots and a pressure of 1003 mb. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:03, June 19, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::Well, I swear this is tropical by now. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:15, June 19, 2012 (UTC) It certainly looks promising, but I was hesitant to strengthen this beyond TS force without model agreement. (on the 1800z update). I predicted that this would only reach 30 kt. I probably would bump my forecast up once more models see this. Darren23[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:Darren23/Cyclone_Warning_Center CWC] 01:22, June 19, 2012 (UTC) probably going to be a td or ts of 40 mph at most I say 50mph.Allanjeffs 01:57, June 19, 2012 (UTC) :I will set it at 50 mph... adjusting for baroclinic affects. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 02:44, June 19, 2012 (UTC) ::...Wait wait wait... baroclinity? In EPAC? Really? Darren23[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:Darren23/Cyclone_Warning_Center CWC] 02:57, June 19, 2012 (UTC) :::Wait... ah I thought this was about the invest in the ATL... sorry about that. Other than that I see no baroclinic effects with the EPAC invest. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 14:33, June 19, 2012 (UTC) :::Down to 60%Allanjeffs 17:53, June 19, 2012 (UTC) ::::Its starting to become sheared. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 18:26, June 19, 2012 (UTC) Northerly shear has removed any convection over the center. I don't see this developing in time now. For me, this might be the first time I've ever seen an 80% bust. Yqt1001 19:54, June 19, 2012 (UTC) :better be generally Daniel names storms are pretty strong this will the first Daniel to be pretty weak.Allanjeffs 20:39, June 19, 2012 (UTC) ::1988's Daniel was also pretty weak, as was the 1994 Daniel, but every other Daniel was a major hurricane. And it still has a 60% chance of forming. Yes it did get knocked down from it's former self, but it still is in rather favorable conditions, and i'd be surprised if this thing busts. I do expect it to develop in the next day or two, if not in the next advisory or two. If anything 95E should be at least an unnamed depression, if not a tropical storm. Ryan1000 22:51, June 19, 2012 (UTC) :::Down to 40% you were saying?Allanjeffs 23:45, June 19, 2012 (UTC) I don't think 95E is going to be Daniel.Cyclone10E-Mail 23:54, June 19, 2012 (UTC) :Me neither... it had a chance while it was eating Carlotta but that was it. Its the second code red EPAC bust this year after 93E. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:55, June 19, 2012 (UTC) ::I knew this was going to be a bust that is why I say minimal ts at most from now it will go down I think it didn`t develop when conditions where favorable now I don`t thnk so.Allanjeffs 23:59, June 19, 2012 (UTC) Well, that being said, maybe when Daniel does come, it won't be a weak storm. That'll be sometime in July. Ryan1000 06:11, June 20, 2012 (UTC) :Well right now its pretty much ripped appart and is at 20%. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 12:58, June 20, 2012 (UTC) ::::It's a bust.Cyclone10E-Mail 16:11, June 20, 2012 (UTC) ::::Never had I seen two invest at code red go down in the same month.Allanjeffs 21:20, June 20, 2012 (UTC) ::::::10%.Cyclone10E-Mail 23:25, June 20, 2012 (UTC) :::::::I thought Carlotta's energy was going to do something when it got soaked up, but, I guess I was wrong. It MAY have been a TD temporarily. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)(c) 23:41, June 20, 2012 (UTC) :::::::Doubt it.Allanjeffs 01:10, June 21, 2012 (UTC) :::::::almost down and out I thinkAllanjeffs 03:56, June 22, 2012 (UTC)